Anything can happen in the markets , and it takes only one trader to do it

Several years ago, a trader came to me for help. He was an excellent market analyst; in fact, he was one of the best I've ever met. But after years of frustration during which he lost all his money and a lot of other people's money, he was finally ready to admit that, as a trader, he left a lot to be desired.

After talking to him for a while, I determined that a number of serious psychological obstacles were preventing him from being successful.

One of the most troublesome obstacles was that he was a know-it-all and extremely arrogant, making it impossible for him to achieve the degree of mental flexibility required to trade effectively. It didn't matter how good an analyst he was. When he came to me, he was so desperate for money and help that

he was willing to consider anything.

The first suggestion I made was that instead of looking for another

investor to back what ultimately would be another failed attempt at trading, he would be better off taking a job, doing something he was truly good at. He could be paid a steady income while working through his problems, and at the same time provide someone with a worthwhile service. He took my advice and quickly found a position as a technical analyst with a fairly substantial brokerage house and

clearing firm in Chicago.

The semi retired chairman of the board of the brokerage firm was a long time trader with nearly 40 years of experience in the grain pits at the Chicago Board of Trade. He didn't know much about technical analysis, because he never needed it to make money on the floor. But he no longer traded on the floor and found the transition to trading from a screen difficult and somewhat mysterious. So he asked the

firm's newly acquired star technical analyst to sit with him during the trading day and teach him technical trading.

The new hire jumped at the opportunity to show off his abilities to such an experienced and successful trader. The analyst was using a method called "point and line," developed by Charlie Drummond. (Among other things, point and line can accurately define support and resistance.) One day, as the two of them were watching the soy bean market together, the analyst had projected major support and resistance points and the market happened to be trading between these two points.

As the technical analyst was explaining to the chairman the significance of these two points, he stated in very emphatic, almost absolute terms that if the market goes up to resistance, it will stop and reverse; and if the market goes down to support, it will also stop and reverse. Then he explained that if the market went down to the price level he calculated as support, his calculations indicated that would also be the low of the day. As they sat there, the bean market was slowly trending down to the price the analyst said would be the support, or low, of the day. When it finally got there, the chairman looked over to the analyst and said, "This is where the market is supposed to stop and go higher, right?"

The analyst responded, "Absolutely! This is the low of the day." "That's bullshit!" the chairman retorted. "Watch this." He picked up the phone, called one of the clerks handling orders for the soybean pit, and said, "Sell two million beans (bushels) at the market." Within thirty seconds after he placed the order, the soybean market dropped ten cents a bushel. The chairman turned to look at the horrified expression on the analysts face. Calmly, he asked, "Now, where did you say the market was going to stop? If I can do that, anyone can."

The point is that from our own individual perspective as observers of the market, anything can happen, and it takes only one trader to do it. This is the hard, cold reality of trading that only the very best traders have embraced and accepted with no internal conflict. How do I know this? Because only the best traders consistently predefine their risks before entering a trade. Only the best traders cut their losses without reservation or hesitation when the market tells them the trade isn't working. And only the best traders have an organized, systematic, money-management regimen for taking profits when the market goes in the direction of their trade. Not predefining your risk, not cutting your losses, or not systematically taking profits are three of the most common—and usually the most costly—trading

errors you can make. Only the best traders have eliminated these errors from their trading.

At some point in their careers, they learned to believe without a shred of doubt that anything can happen, and to always account for what they don't know, for the unexpected.

Remember that there are only two forces  that cause prices to move: traders who believe the markets are going up, and traders who believe the markets are going down. At any given moment, we can see who has the stronger conviction by observing where the market is now relative to where it was at some previous moment.

 If a recognizable pattern is present, that pattern may repeat itself, giving us an indication of where the market is headed.

This is our edge, something we know. But there's also much that we don't know, and will never know unless we learn how to read minds. For instance, do we know how many traders may be sitting on the sidelines and about to enter the market? Do we know how many of them want to buy and how many want to sell, or how many shares they are willing to buy or sell? What about the traders whose

participation is already reflected in the current price? At any given moment, how many of them are about to change their minds and exit their positions?

If they do, how long will they stay out of the market? And if and when they do come back into the market, in what direction will they cast their votes? These are the constant, never-ending, unknown, hidden variables that are always operating in every market—always] The best traders don't try to hide from these unknown variables by pretending they don't exist, nor do they try to intellectualize or

rationalize them away through market analysis. Quite the contrary, the best traders take these variables into account, factoring them into every component of their trading regimes.

 For the typical trader, just the opposite is true. He trades from the perspective that what he can't see, hear, or feel must not exist.

What other explanation could account for his behaviour? If he really believed in the existence of all the hidden variables that have the potential to act on prices in any given moment, then he would also have to believe that every trade has an uncertain outcome. And if every trade truly has an uncertain outcome,

then how could he ever justify or talk himself into not predefining his risk, cutting his losses, or having some systematic way to take profits? Given the circumstances, not adhering to these three fundamental principles is the equivalent of committing financial and emotional suicide.

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Adapted from ‘Trading in the zone’ by Mark Douglas.